Number of over65s needing 24hour care to rise by third over next

The team developed the Population Ageing and Care Simulation (PACSim) model as little research had previously been done on how levels of dependency might change for different generations of older people.PACSim accounts for multiple risk factors for dependence and disability, including a wide range of sociodemographic factors (such as level of education) and health behaviours (for example, smoking status and physical activity), as well as 12 chronic diseases and geriatric conditions including coronary heart disease, stroke, hypertension, diabetes, arthritis, cancer and depression.Using longitudinal data from three large nationally representative studies of adults (aged 35 and older), the study modelled future trends in social care needs for the population aged 65 and older in England between 2015 and 2035, according to varying levels of dependency.Adults were categorised as high dependency if they required 24-hour care, medium dependency if they needed help at regular times daily, low dependency if they required care less than daily and were generally looked after in the community, or independent (without care needs). The number of adults aged 65 and over needing round-the-clock care will rise by over a third to more than one million during the next 20 years, experts have suggested.The number of over-85s requiring 24-hour care will almost double to 446,000 in England by 2035, according to a new modelling study published in The Lancet Public Health.The research, carried out by Newcastle University and the London School of Economics and Political Science, found there will be plenty of people living independent lives, with the number of over-65s living without care needs set to rise to 8.9 million – an increase of more than 60% from 5.5 million in 2015.They predict this increase in independence will be seen mainly in men.–– ADVERTISEMENT ––Nevertheless, they said the estimates predict a rise in the number of people living into old age with multiple long-term conditions, with the majority (80%) of older adults with dementia and in need of substantial care in 2035 likely to have two or more other diseases. Alzheimer’s Society chief executive, Jeremy Hughes, said: “These new estimates paint a challenging future, with the number of people needing constant care – the majority of whom will be living with dementia – starkly increasing in the next 20 years.”After decades of starved funding, the social care system is buckling under the strain.”Through our helpline we hear of people with dementia being forced to choose between a wash or a hot meal due to the limited time of a homecare visit, and ending up in hospital with an infection because they didn’t have the support to shower each day.”A spokesman for the Department of Health and Social Care said: “In the Autumn we will set out our plans to reform adult social care alongside our long term plan for the NHS, so we can address the challenge of our growing ageing population head on and ensure services are sustainable for the future.” They said their study highlights the importance of ensuring that health and social care services adapt to the unprecedented needs of an increasing older population with complex care needs, with the authors warning that relying on the informal carers who provide around £57 billion worth of care in the UK is not a sustainable solution.Professor Carol Jagger, from the Newcastle University Institute for Ageing, said: “The challenge is considerable.”Our study suggests that older spouse carers are increasingly likely to be living with disabilities themselves, resulting in mutual care relationships that are not yet well recognised by existing care policy and practices.”On top of that, extending the retirement age of the UK population is likely to further reduce the informal and unpaid carer pool, who have traditionally provided for older family members.”These constraints will exacerbate pressures on already stretched social care budgets.” The researchers also analysed how the burden of dementia with and without other chronic diseases will change demand for social care over the next 20 years.For instance, while numbers of over-65s with dementia will fall by around a third (equivalent to 16,000 less people) by 2035, those with dementia and two or more conditions will more than double (equivalent to an additional 493,000 people).Prof Jagger said: “This expanding group will have more complex care needs that are unlikely to be met adequately without improved co-ordination between different specialities and better understanding of the way in which dementia affects the management of other conditions.”Nick Forbes, senior vice chairman of the Local Government Association (LGA), said: “This report is a further warning of the crisis in adult social care and the urgent need to plug the immediate funding gap and find a long-term solution on how we pay for it and improve people’s independence and wellbeing.”With people living longer, increases in costs, decreases in funding, care providers closing and contracts being returned to councils, the system is at breaking point, ramping up pressures on unpaid carers who are the backbone of the care system.”Adult social care services face a £3.5 billion funding gap by 2025, just to maintain existing standards of care. The likely consequences of this are more and more people being unable to get quality and reliable care and support, which enables them to live more fulfilling lives.” Estimates suggest that the number of people over 65 will increase by just under 50% from 9.7 million in 2015 to 14.5 million in 2035, and highlight the very differing future care needs of men and women.Between 2015 and 2035, life expectancy for men aged 65 is projected to rise by 3.5 years to 22.2 years, and the average number of years spent independent is expected to increase by 4.2 years (from 11.1 years to 15.2), while time spent living with substantial care needs (medium or high dependency) is likely to decline.In contrast, for women average life expectancy at 65 will increase by just three years (from 21.1 to 24.1).Over this time, the average number of years spent independent is expected to rise by less than a year (from 10.7 years to 11.6), and women will spend almost half of their remaining life with low dependency needs such as help with activities like washing and shopping, alongside a small increase in years requiring intensive 24-hour care (from two years in 2015 to 2.7 years in 2035).Prof Jagger added: “Over the next 20 years, although young-old cohorts (aged 65-74) are more likely to enter old age independent, the proportion with multi-morbidities is projected to rise with each successive cohort, and this will result in a greater likelihood of higher dependency with further ageing.”However, trends for men and women are likely to be very different, with women experiencing more low-level dependency than men, highlighting the importance of focusing on disabling long-term conditions such as arthritis that are more common in women than men.” Want the best of The Telegraph direct to your email and WhatsApp? 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Benfica and Braga for Portuguese and Challenge Cup titles

ABC Braga VS S.L Benfica clashes during May will be written in the history of Portuguese, but also European handball. Two teams meet at Men’s EHF Challenge Cup Final, where Braga celebrated away win 28:22 in the first of two matches.However, two teams fighting also for the domestic title which will bring place at Men’s VELUX EHF Champions League. At the moment, result is 1:1 at final series. ABC Braga won first match 40:38 after extra-time, while Benfica took revenge 28:25.Final continues in Braga on May 25 (Best of 5). ← Previous Story MADHOUSE IN MOROCCO: Zamalek win African CWC – Esperance to IHF Super Globe Next Story → Elverum win Norwegian championship! ABC Braga handballportuguese handballS.L Benfica handball read more

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Tonights Evening Fix now with added thumbs up and down

first_imgAn installation by Chinese artists Sun Yuan and Peng Yu at the opening of an exhibition called China China at the Pinchuk Art Centre in Kiev, Ukraine today. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsy)HERE ARE THE things we learned, loved and shared today as we round off the day in three easy steps.THINGS WE LEARNED#BUS ÉIREANN: Executives at Bus Éireann face pay cuts and a longer working week under proposals agreed between management at the company and unions after lengthy negotiations. SIPTU said several issues at the centre of the dispute which provoked a two-day strike have now been resolved, and Bus Éireann said the cost-saving measures will help protect the jobs of its 2,500 employees.#INTERNET: A High Court judge has ordered a group of experts to see if it is possible to remove a video which falsely accuses an Irish student of not paying a taxi fare from the internet. The judge said student Eoin McKeogh had been subject to “vile, crude, obscene and generally obnoxious comments” after he was mistakenly identified as being a fare dodger.#PROPERTY: Businessman and former property developer Breifne O’Brien has failed in his bid to have his trial on charges of theft and deception stopped over adverse media publicity which he claimed could prejudice the hearings. The judge agreed to delay the case for 12 months to allow reporting on O’Brien’s financial affairs fade from public memory before a jury is sworn in.#PENALTY POINTS: Garda Commissioner Martin Callinan has defended an internal Garda investigation into the cancellation of penalty points and said he is very satisfied that the team left no stone unturned in its investigation. Speaking in front of the Oireachtas today, the Commissioner said that road traffic matters were a discretionary issue for Gardaí.#END IT LIKE BECKHAM: David Beckham has announced he is to retire from football at the end of this season. The 38-year-old turned down a one-year extension at club Paris Saint-Germain, saying he felt now is the right time to finish his career while he is still playing at the highest level.#IT’S BACK: Some (unexpected) good news: a medieval sculpture stolen from the grounds of a Meath church last month has been returned to its original position. Locals reported seeing two jeeps driving up to the grounds in the early hours of the morning before unloading the 15th century baptismal font.THINGS WE LOVED(Image: Houghton Library/Harvard)This is one for all the Star Trek fans out there (old school fans, not the Johnny-come-latelys who only started watching when JJ Abrams started doing the films). This excerpt comes from a writers’ guide for the original series which explains how episodes were crafted (“We tantalize the audience with a promise of excitement to come…”) in order to help nail the tone and content of a typical episode. You can see more pages from it over at Slate.Loneliness may be a the next public health crisis in the US – at least, so says this thoughtful and in-depth essay from New Republic, which looks at how loneliness has moved from being a social problem (especially for old people) to something else.It’s one of the largest, longest, widest, tallest and most expensive passenger liners in the world – and the Queen Mary II spent most of today docked in Dún Laoghaire. Taoiseach Enda Kenny officially switches on Eircom’s fibre network at the company’s head quarters in Dublin today. (Photo: Niall Carson/PA Wire)THINGS WE SHAREDGood news, thumbers (that’s a word, right?). You can now change your mind about how you feel about comments on TheJournal.ie. There is something very sinister and almost sci-fi-esque about this video of a sandstorm advancing over Rafh, a town in Saudi Arabia, as seen from a plane flying just above it. Looks like we’re not the only ones to think so: it’s gotten more than 210,000 views in the three days since it was put up on YouTube: (Video: JacekP/YouTube)last_img read more

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